Posts tagged "statistical significance"
“This is the basic logic of hypothesis testing—conclude that your claim is correct if the chance of alternative claims being correct is small” (via Why You Shouldn’t Conclude “No Effect” from Statistically Insignificant Slopes « Elections « Carlisle Rainey).
I think this is more an issue of data scarcity to me, and one that would been attenuated, for example, by focusing on confidence intervals.
It’s also an issue of low resolution data. The author’s example is one where the model is trying to be of rank one on the Hibbs Efficacy Scale, where you beat the crap out of the covariance matrix by predicting a presidential election victory out of *one* independent variable. Try it again with state-level data to get more granularity, and the red-blue mikado plots will become much less ambiguous after a few residual-versus-predictor plots.
I do like the mikado plots, though. The eye seems to produce an intuitive credible interval out of them.